河南省交通能耗碳排放的驱动因素及空间格局分析

Driving factors and spatial pattern analysis of the transportation carbon emission in Henan Province

基于河南省2010-2016年交通能源消耗碳排放量,以河南省18个地级市为研究单元,利用对数指数平均权重法(LMDI)因素分解方法,对河南省交通能耗碳排放变化进行因素分解,并利用地统计分析方法对河南省交通能耗碳排放的空间分布格局进行分析,结果表明,河南省交通能耗碳排放量在2010-2016年呈不断增长的趋势;各类能耗影响因素中,煤炭是影响交通能源消耗碳排放总量变化的主要原因;石油、天然气和电力对其影响较小. LMDI模型因素分解,第三产业经济增加值对河南省交通能耗碳排放产生正向驱动作用,交通运输业经济份额和交通能源强度对交通能耗碳排放产生负向驱动作用,交通能源结构的驱动影响取决于能源利用的合理性,其中,第三产业经济增加值对碳排放的影响最大,交通能源结构对碳排放的影响最小.由于人口分布和经济发展水平的不同,河南省交通能源消耗碳排放沿着东北-西南方向变化较大,此方向上的交通能源消耗碳排放量也较大.整体上,河南省交通能源消耗碳排放呈中部高、四周低的分布格局.

Taking eighteen prefectural cities in Henan Province as the research object,we studied the data on carbon emissions in transportation energy consumption 2010 to 2016,along with logarithmic mean division index(LMDI)model and geostatistical analysist to achieve the analysis of transportation energy consumption carbon emissions.The results as follows:the carbon emissions in transportation energy consumption in Henan Province in 2010-2016 showed a rising trend.Of all kinds of energy consumption influencing factors,coal was the main reason for the change of the total carbon emission.Oil,gas and hydropower had little impact.LMDI model factorization:the factor of added value of the tertiary industry was positively correlated with carbon emissions,while transportation energy intensity factor and energy structure factor were negatively correlated.And the transportation energy structure factor was uncertain.Of them,the factor of added value of the tertiary industry had the most impact,and the transportation energy structure factor had a minimal impact on carbon emissions.Due to the differences in population distribution and the level of economic development,the carbon emissions of transportation energy consumption in Henan Province varied greatly from the northeast to southwest,while the carbon emissions in this direction were also larger.In general,energy consumption in Henan Province presented a special pattern with a high in the middle and low in the surrounding areas.