重庆不同经济区土地利用与覆盖变化及社会驱动力研究

Research on the Process and Social Driving Forces of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Chongqing

1990年以来,重庆市社会经济发生了巨大变化,从而引起了土地利用/土地覆盖格局的相应变化。通过以重庆市万州区、北碚区、酉阳县为研究样点,剖析了其土地利用动态度、土地利用程度和景观结构的变化情况。然后运用回归分析和灰色动态预测GM(1,1)模型分析了样点主要地类变化的驱动力,并进行了预测。最后提出了使土地利用/土地覆盖向有利方向变化的措施。

Since 1990, great changes have taken place in society and economy in Chongqing, which cause the corresponding land use and land cover change. Taking Wanzhou, Beibei and Youyang of Chongqing as the example, this paper analyzes the changes in land use dynamic degree, land use degree index and landscape structure. With the help of Linear Regression Model and Grey Trend Prediction Model GM(1,1), it analyzes the social driving forces and makes some predictions of primary land use types. Some countermeasures should be put forward to make land use and land cover change for the better.