不确定环境下的管理决策研究——效果推理视角

Decision Making in Uncertain Situations: An Effectuation Perspective

如何在不确定环境下决策是管理研究和实践长期以来共同关心的问题。既有研究对该问题至少提出三种应对方法 :坚持预测并更好地计划;尽可能地适应;愿景驱动。与以上方法不同,效果推理强调对未来的控制,而不是聚焦于预测,从而建立了一整套关于不确定环境下的决策理论。该理论包含五个基本原理,是一套关于在不确定环境下如何思考、决策和行动的完整理论。经过近二十年的发展,效果推理理论的内涵不断明晰,相关的实证研究也取得了长足进展。然而,该理论仍处于发展阶段,对其重要缺陷进行补充完善,将对丰富和发展不确定环境下的决策理论有所助益。

Many firms operate in a highly uncertain business environment. How to make decisions in uncertain situations has been a common concern for academic researchers as well as practitioners. Existing studies have proposed at least three approaches to decision making in uncertain situations: Planning approach; Adaptive approach; Visionary approach. Planning approach suggests that decision makers should try harder to predict more accurately. Adaptive approach claims that decision makers should try to move faster in order to adapt better. Visionary approach focuses on constructing an organization and its environment by visualizing future possibilities and proactively turns them into reality. Effectuation approach is different from these three approaches in the sense that it emphasizes on controlling the future rather than prediction. In turn, a comprehensive theory of decision making under uncertainties is developed. Effectuation theory includes five principles including pilot-in-the plane principle, bird-in-hand principle, affordable-loss principle, the crazy-quilt principle and leveraging contingencies. This paper first summarizes the theoretical studies of effectuation theory. It is found that effectuation theory is an integrated theory about how to think, decide and act in uncertain situations. The theory has been developed for twenty years and the meaning of the theory has been clarified. Meanwhile, this paper reviews empirical studies conducted through the lens of effectuation theory. Although the theoretical and empirical research of effectuation theory has witnessed a rapid progress, effectuation theory is still under development. Researchers need to have further theoretical discussions in order to overcome the drawbacks of effectuation theory. Besides, future empirical studies should apply more rigorous methods and pay attention to the sample size. More studies could be conducted to examine the antecedents of applying effectuation approach. Further, it is suggested that scholars can use effectuation theory to examine strategic alliance, merge and acquisition, technology innovation, service innovation, and business model innovation in order to enrich theories of decision making in uncertain situations.