先发企业的崛起与后进企业的逆袭——基于小世界网络的创新扩散仿真研究

The Rise of Earlier-developing Firms and the Counterattack of Latecomer Firms: Simulation of Innovation Diffusion Based on Small World Network

本文基于WS小世界网络,用多智能体模拟仿真方法构建了局部网络效应下的单一扩散模型,并首次建立了序贯进入模型,分析社会网络的结构、网络效应强度和产品动态技术绩效对创新扩散深度的影响。研究发现,社会网络环境下产品技术仍然是创新扩散深度的决定性因素,创新产品的技术绩效越高,创新扩散越彻底。社会网络结构显著影响扩散深度,聚集网络由于能够提供行为的社会强化而最有利于创新扩散。网络效应强度是社会强化的另一种形式,网络效应强度越高,创新扩散深度越大,网络结构变化带来的创新扩散深度波动也越小。竞争环境下,社会网络的网络效应强度越高越有利于先发产品,拥有明显技术优势的后进产品在聚集网络或网络效应强度较低的社会网络中扩散深度会远超先发产品。当网络非常聚集时,无论先发产品的用户基数多大,也无论后进产品的技术优势多强,均无法通吃市场。本研究的结论对企业制定新产品发展战略具有积极指导意义。

Based on the small-world network explored by Watts and Strogatz, this paper constructs the single diffusion model under local network effects and sequential entry model for the first time using multi-agent simulation method. It analyzes the comprehensive influence of the structure and network effect of social network, and the product's technical performance on the innovation diffusion depth. Compared to previous studies, the paper deals with technical performance in a dynamic way. The results show that product technology is still the decisive factor of innovation diffusion depth. The higher the technological performance of innovation, the more thorough the diffusion of innovation will be. The change of the p value of social network can cause the fluctuation of the diffusion depth, and aggregation networks are most conducive to innovation diffusion because they can provide social reinforcement of behavior. Network effect intensity is another form of social reinforcement, and it helps to promote the diffusion of innovation. Besides, it can adjust the influence of social network structure on innovation diffusion. The greater the strength of the network effect, the less the depth of innovation diffusion caused by the change of network structure. Under the competitive environment, as the sequential entry model shows, the higher the network effect of social network, the higher the market share of the first enterprise will occupy. However, the latecomer firms having obvious technological advantages will cover more adopters than earlier-developing firms in aggregation networks and social network with low network effect. But it also shows that no matter how large the install base of first enterprise, and how strong technical advantages of backward enterprises, they are both unable to take all of the market in aggregation networks. The conclusion of this study is of positive guiding significance for enterprises to formulate new product development strategy in the social network environment.