旅游目的地如何有效管控风险——来自南疆地区的证据

How to Manage Tourist Destination Risk Effectively? Evidence from Southern Xinjiang

旅游者对目的地的风险感知将直接影响其最终行为决策,因此,如何有效管控风险已成为目的地管理与营销必须面对的重大挑战。本研究聚焦南疆地区,将旅游者感知风险细分为社会风险、时间风险、财务风险、身体风险和心理风险五个维度,以整体风险和感知价值为中介变量,通过构建结构方程模型,检验旅游者感知风险各细分维度对其行为意向的作用机制。研究结果显示,旅游者对南疆地区的社会、时间、财务三大风险感知显著正向影响其整体风险感知;财务和心理风险感知显著负向影响其感知价值评价;身体风险感知对整体风险与感知价值的影响均不显著;整体风险与感知价值的中介效应显著。

In today’s mobile internet era, risk management has become an inevitable problem for tourism destinations. The risk perception of tourists on destinations directly affects their ultimate behavioral decisions. The subdivided dimensions of tourists’ perceived risk act on the tourism intention through the mediating effects of overall risk and perceived value. This paper tries to describe the mechanism of tourist’s perceived risk of Southern Xinjiang and intention. Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is playing a more and more important role in the background of The Belt and Road Initiative. As for the Silk Road Tourism, Southern Xinjiang is the focal point. Because of the geographical distance, it is difficult for tourists to obtain enough accurate information, and its culture is quite different from that of the mainland culture, which means mysterious and unpredictable. Affected by the very few crisis incidents, Southern Xinjiang has been in the predicament of being stigmatized. Therefore, it’s necessary to further explore how to solve the stigma problem in tourism destinations. This study was conducted from July 28 to August 7 in Southern Xinjiang, 2017. Convenience sample method was utilized to distribute questionnaires. 400 questionnaires were distributed and 318 valid were received. Reliability and validity were analyzed by SPSS. The model fit indexes,path analysis, mediation effect and moderation effect were verified which showed that the model in this paper was appropriate. Then the results were come out. The empirical results show that tourists’ social risk perception, time risk perception and financial risk perception of Southern Xinjiang region significantly positively affect their overall risk perception;tourists’ financial risk perception and psychological risk perception of Southern Xinjiang region significantly negatively affect their perceived value judgment;Tourists’ physical risk perception has no significant effect on the overall risk and perceived value. The results are of great importance for Tourism Marketing and Risk Management Activities. Firstly, a variety of marketing measures should be put in place to innovate the tourism marketing model. Secondly, strengthen public opinion management in an all-round way, and restore the brand image of destinations. Last but not least, accelerate infrastructure construction and comprehensively reduce tourists’ overall travel costs. All of above are of great value for the long-term stability and sustainable development of Southern Xinjiang.