人口老龄化对收入不平等的影响——基于多区域动态CGE模型的研究

The Impact of Population Aging on Income Inequality Based on Multi-Regional Dynamic CGE Model

伴随着经济社会的高速发展,人口老龄化和收入不平等问题受到越来越多的关注,人口老龄化对于收入不平等的影响亟待进一步的探究与分析。利用联合国对于中国人口2010-2050年的预测数据,文章尝试通过动态可计算模型模拟获得人口老龄化对于宏观商品以及要素价格的影响效果,基于我国人口老龄化分布的区域性特征,利用自上而下且自下而上的循环链接方式将宏观经济变量链接到家庭微观模拟模型中,利用收入不平等指标阐述不同区域间人口老龄化对于收入不平等的影响。实证研究结果表明,在人口老龄化的背景下,劳动人口下降,从而造成居民的收入不平等现象呈现上升趋势;而中国西部老年家庭相比较其他地区的家庭而言,其收入不平等的现象最为严重;来自不同区域的组间不平等差距随着老龄化的趋势,不平等现象在逐步扩大。

With the rapid development of economy and society,more and more attention has been paid to the issue of population aging and income inequality,and the impact of population aging on income inequality needs to be further explored and analyzed.With the predicted trend of China’s population in 2010-2050 by the UN,this paper tries to gain the effects of an aging population on macro goods as well as the factors of price changes through the dynamic calculation model.Based on the regional characteristics of the distribution of aging population in our country,in the top-down and bottom-up cycle linking way,the macroeconomic variables are linked to microscopic simulation model.The family income inequality index in this paper indicates the impact of population aging on income inequality in different areas.The empirical results show that under the background of the aging population,the labor population decreases,and the income inequality of residents increases obviously.Compared with families in other regions,the income inequality of those aging families in western China is the most serious.Inequality between groups from different regions is increasing as the population ages.