人口老龄化与经济增长——基于OECD与金砖四国跨国面板数据的实证结果

Population Aging and Economic Growth——An Empirical Analysis on Panel Data of OECD Countries and BRIC Countries

收集OECD 34个国家和金砖四国1980-2010年的跨国面板数据验证人口老龄化对经济增长的影响。实证结果表明,人口老龄化对经济增长产生了显著的负向影响。与先前研究人口老龄化的文献有所不同的是,在论证人口老龄化对经济增长影响的同时还控制了预期寿命的影响,研究结果表明预期寿命延长对经济增长产生了积极的促进作用。此外,跨国面板的实证结果还表明资本形成率、人力资本和开放度均对经济增长产生了积极的促进作用,而外商直接投资和城镇化率对经济增长的影响则不显著。我国人口老龄化趋势将越来越严重,应当提早准备,以应对人口老龄化带来的不利冲击。

Population aging has been a significant social problem for developed countries, and prospectively for developing countries. This paper verifies the impact of population aging on economic growth based on the multinational panel dataset of 34 OECD countries and BRIC countries f rom 1980 to 2010. The results show that population aging exerts a signiifcant negative impact on economic growth. Different from the previous research, this one controls the inlfuence of life expectancy while testifying the impact of population aging on economic growth and ifnds a positive effect of longer life expectancy on economic growth. Additionally, the empirical result from the multinational dataset also recognizes the rate of capital formation, human capital and openness as the facilitation for economic growth, yet the coefifcient of FDI and urbanization rate do not pass the signiifcant test. Due to the deteriorating population crisis, China should make early preparations for the impact from population aging.