老龄化背景下社会保障水平对拉动内需的影响分析——以江苏省南通市为例

An Analysis of the Influence of Social Security Level on Domestic Demand Stimulation under the Background of Aging——Taking Nantong City of Jiangsu Province as an Example

人口老龄化给我国尚不健全的社会保障体系造成了巨大的冲击,养老保险、医疗保险、社会福利等主要社会保障项目的支出负担日益加重。为检验评估社会保障水平对居民消费的影响,在分析社会保障水平适度性的基础上,选取南通市1997年社会保障制度改革以来的相关数据,采用计量经济学研究方法,实证分析社会保障水平对居民消费水平的相关性和作用程度。完善的社会保障体系和适度的社会保障水平对扩大内需、增强居民消费能力和提振城乡居民消费信心具有重要的引致效应,能有效地促进居民"释放"消费能力。基于实证研究结论,提出应对人口老龄化和扩大内需的政策建议。

Population aging causes a huge shock to our imperfect social security system, and increases the burden of social security spending including pension insurance, medical insurance and social welfare. To assess the impact of social security on household consumption, this paper ifrst analyzes the appropriateness of social security level, and then selects the relevant data since the 1997 social security reform in Nantong to make an empirical analysis on the correlation between social security level and household consumption level by using econometric methods. The study holds that a sound social security system and a moderate level of social security can help to expand domestic demand, increase household consumption and boost the urban and rural residents' consumption conifdence. Based on empirical research conclusions, the paper offers policy recommendations to cope with population aging and the expansion of domestic demand.