机关事业单位养老保险制度改革财政压力的预测仿真分析——以浙江省为例

The Fiscal Pressure Prediction Simulation Analysis on the Reforms of Government Organizations and Institutions Pension System—— Applicable in Zhejiang Province

破除养老金"双轨制",深化改革机关事业单位养老保险制度,就是要建立全国统一的机关事业单位三支柱养老保险体系。针对不同的养老金改革方案,对浙江省未来35年的养老金待遇支出、个人养老金权益以及改革后基础养老金和职业年金的财政支出情况进行政策仿真分析。最后得出结论:未来浙江省在养老金"双轨制"改革问题上面临的财政压力并不算特别大,养老金"双轨制"改革在浙江省具有可行性和可持续性。

The purpose of breaking the pension double-track and deepening the reform authority institution endowment insurance system is to establish a nationwide uniifed three-pillar endowment insurance system in public institutions. According to different pension reforms, this paper makes a policy simulation analysis on the treatment of pension spending, personal pension rights and interests, and basic pensions and occupational pension spending after the reform on the next 35 years of Zhejiang province. Finally, it draws a conclusion that the ifscal pressure of pension reform in Zhejiang province is not particularly big, and the pension reform in Zhejiang province has feasibility and sustainability.