生育选择、养老制度与经济产出——基于生产要素内生的OLG分析

Fertility Choice, Pension System and Economic Output—— Based on OLG Analysis of Endogenous Production Factors

采用OLG模型,考察了不同养老制度下的生育政策对生育水平、总产出以及人均产出的影响。模拟发现:随着生育意愿的持续下降,无论是维持生育政策不变还是放开生育政策,通过制定生育上限的政策,都几乎不会对宏观经济发生任何影响;在总产出和人均产出上,积累制养老模式和家庭储蓄养老模式高于现收现付制的养老模式;积累制养老模式在总产出和人均产出上轻微低于家庭储蓄养老模式,基于两者差别微小,从社会公平和当前人口结构的角度看,建议中国的养老模式逐渐过渡到由政府主导的自己养自己的积累制养老模式。

This paper uses the OLG method, examines the different birth policy under different pension system and the effect on future output and per capita output. The simulation show that, with the birth continue to fall, there is less or nothing impacts on macroeconomic whether maintain fertility policy unchanged or relax fertility policy; In output and per capita output, accumulation system pension and family savings pension mode is higher than pay-as-you-go pension mode. Accumulation system pension mode on the output and per capita output is slightly lower than family savings pension mode, based on the small differences, from the perspective of social justice and the current population structure, we suggest that China's pension mode should gradually transit to the accumulation pension mode.