“养儿防老”与“储蓄防老”的替代与互补——基于山东省济南市调查数据的实证研究

Alternative and Complementary Relationship between Raise Children to Provide for Old Age and Savings for Old Age—— An Empirical Study Based on the Survey Data in Shandong Jinan

基于调查问卷的采样数据,运用主成分分析法和Logistic逻辑回归分析,对山东省济南市居民"养儿防老"和"储蓄防老"观念进行对比研究。结果表明:无论是农村还是城市,都存在着"养儿防老"向"储蓄防老"转变的趋势,但农村地区对"养儿防老"仍然具有一定依赖性,济南市各区(县)的养老模式替代程度存在明显的地区差异;从实际影响因素来看,个人综合收入(可支配收入、养老保险等)、健康状况、有无儿子是影响城市居民养老观念的主要因素,而收入与职业发展指标(纯收入、职业类型、社区身份等)、文化程度、健康状况、家庭指标(家庭关系、家庭规模等)、交通状况则是影响农村居民养老模式选择的主要因素。在目前人口老龄化趋势加快的背景下,该研究为应对人口老龄化问题及探索中国式的养老之道提供了一个分析框架。

Based on the sample data of questionnaires, the paper uses the method of principal component analysis and Logistic logic regression analysis, conducts the contrast research to the Shandong Jinan residents "raise children to provide for old age" and "savings for old age" concepts. The results shows that there are "support" to "savings" transforming tendency in both rural and urban areas, but in rural areas, the "raise children to provide for old age" still has a certain dependence, the pension mode substitution degree has clear regional differences; From the actual impact factor: comprehensive income (personal disposable income, pension insurance), health status, whether have sons or not are the main factors that inlfuence the city residents endowment ideas; income and occupation development index (net income, occupation type, community identity), cultural degree, health status, family index (relation, scale), trafifc conditions are main factors inlfuencing the choice of rural residents endowment pattern. In the accelerated aging trend, the study provides a theoretical framework for coping with aging problems and explores the Chinese endowment type.