基于人口老龄化的中国农村养老资源供给评价

China Rural Endowment Resources Supply Appraise Based on the Population Aging

查阅整理了2012年度全国各省、自治区、直辖市(港澳台地区除外)有关农村养老资源的面板数据,运用主成分分析方法,对关于农村养老资源总体供给的19个指标进行了分析,根据各省、自治区、直辖市最后综合得分,将全国分为4大类地区。结果显示:各省、自治区、直辖市农村的养老资源各方面差异都很大,上海、北京、天津等经济发展好的地区农村养老资源供给能力均较好,经济相对落后的地区供给能力则相对较弱,人口大省的农民人均养老资源供给能力非常低。最后提出加大农村社会化养老服务资源供给、加大农业补贴和有针对性地制定符合当地情况的养老模式等建议。

The paper checks and organizes the 2012 annual review of the provinces(except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions) panel data on rural endowment of resources, uses principal component analysis method, analyzes the 19 indexes on general rural endowment resources supply, and divides the country into 4 categories according to the province's final composite scores. The results show that rural endowment resources in all the provinces are of great differences of each; rural endowment resources supply abilities are better in Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and other areas in good economic development, the supply capacities in economy backward regions are relatively lower; populous of farmers per capita endowment resources supply capacities are very low. Finally the paper puts forward some suggestions such as improving rural social endowment service supply, increasing agricultural subsidies and formulating the endowment patterns in line with the local situation conditions.