外推型预期公式的检验与评价

Testing and Evaluation of Outward Derivative Anticipation Formula

经济学中的很多变量需要预测,其中的一个方法是运用外推型预期公式。由于外推型预期公式有 其自身特点和规律,即趋势值的选择是影响预测效果的一个主要变量,因此使用该公式进行经济预测时, 短期预测应选择较小的趋势值,长期预测应选取中间的趋势值。

Many economic variables need to be calculated, and an important calculative formula is the outward derivative anticipation. This formula is characterized by the selection of trend value because the result of calculation can be affected. The paper holds the opinion that when the formula is used in economic forecast, a relatively small trend value should be selected to make a short-term calculation and a middle trend value can be used in the long-term calculation. .