汉江中下游水质模拟与预测——QUAL2K模型的应用

Hydrochemical Modeling and Prediction of the Middle and LowerReaches of Hanjiang River: Application of QUAL2K Model

南水北调中线工程计划实施后 ,对汉江中下游的社会经济和生态环境都将产生影响。本文运用美国环保局最新推出的 QUAL 2 K模型 ,探讨了汉江中下游的水质变化趋势。 QUAL 2 K模型进行了部分修改 ,以克服QUAL 2 E的缺陷。将 QU AL 2 E和 QU AL 2 K都应用到研究河流的同一河段并比较模拟结果发现 ,QU AL 2 K比QUAL 2 E能更好的拟合野外观测数据。水质预测为 2 0 10年 ,南水北调中线工程从汉江年调水 14 5× 10 8m3,汉江中下游水质变化情况 ,预测因子为 BOD,结果表明 :BOD在汉江中下游江段普遍升高 ,这说明汉江中下游的水质总体下降 ,最大浓度变化分别为 19.8%和 2 1.8%。

The central route project of transferring the Hanjiang River water to northern China will have impact on social economic development and ecological environment in the middle and lower areas of Hanjiang River basin U S Environmental Protection Agency's QUAL2K model is applied to simulate the water quality change tendency of the middle and lower reaches of Hanjiang River Several modifications were made in QUAL2K to overcome the limitation of QUAL2E Both QUAL2E and QUAL2K model are applied to the same reaches of Hangjiang River and the results are compared It is found that QUAL2K model better matches monitoring data than QUAL2E In this paper, BOD is used to predict the water quality of Hanjiang River in the year 2010, when 1 45 billion m 3 water is transferred from Hanjiang River The results show that BOD concentration will increase in the middle and lower reaches of Hanjiang River,indicating the degradation of water quality The maximum change rate of BOD concentration is 19 8% in QUAL2E model and 21 8% in QUAL2K model