钱塘江河口年最高潮位的随机特性

Stochastic characteristic of the maximum tide level in Qiantang River downstream

在海塘建设和工程设计中,将年最高潮位系列视为服从某一确定分布的随机变量,并以此为基础为海塘等工程建设提供设计参数。为确证年最高潮位不具有非随机特性,并提高频率分析法推求设计值的可信度,采用序列自相关系数、序列秩号相关系数、序列秩号和、序列秩号与序号的相关系数、序列游程数和序列转折点数等6种非参数假设检验的方法,分析了钱塘江河口8个水位站的年最高潮位系列的随机特性。实例分析的结果表明,提供的假设检验方法对分析水文时间序列的一致性具有实用意义。

In seawall construction and project design,the design maximum tide level is calculated based on the hypothesis that annual maximum high tide level is a stochastic variable which follows a certain distribution. In order to enhance the reliability of frequency analysis method for computing the design height, arithmetic serial correlation coefficient, rank order correlation coefficient test, rank and order correlation test, rank order sum test, runs test and turning points test are chosen to test the randomness of annual maximum tide level of 8 stations along Qiantang River downstream. Statistical testing methods proposed in this paper have practical meaning for analyzing hydrologic time series.