吉林省居民生活消费的间接碳排放特征及影响因素

我国居民消费水平的不断提高,引发的间接能耗和CO2排放不容忽视。以吉林省为例,通过计算2004—2013年间居民各类消费活动所产生的能源消耗量及碳排放量并分析其变化特征,证明"居住"、"食物"和"文化教育娱乐"三类消费是间接能源消耗和碳排放的最主要来源。采用STIRPAT模型,通过岭回归拟合得到吉林省居民消费的碳排放与碳排强度、吉林省人口数量、居民平均每人生活性消费支出和城镇化水平的多元线性模型。结果显示,碳排强度、人口数量和城市化率每增加1%,吉林省居民生活消费间接能耗的碳排放分别增加0.831%,0.184%和0.055%,碳排强度对吉林省居民生活消费间接能耗的碳排影响最大;人均消费每提高1%,吉林省间接能源消耗碳排放则下降0.309%。

With the improvement of residents' living standards and the upgrade of consumption structure,energy consumption and carbon emissions caused by residents' living consumption increase day by day. This paper accounted the energy consumption and carbon emissions due to Jilin Province residents' expenditure during the period 2004-2013,and analyzed their variation features,which proved that living,education and entertainment,and food were the main aspects contribute to energy consumption and the carbon emission. Based on the STIRPAT model,a multivariate linear model by fitted a ridge regression to examine the relationship between carbon emissions and a list of human activity indices including carbon emission intensity,population of Jilin Province,per capita consumption expenditure,urbanization rate,was built. It was found that for 1% increase in carbon emission intensity,population and urbanization rate,there was 0.831%,0.184% and 0.055% increase in carbon emission caused by residents' living consumption in Jilin Province. Carbon emission intensity was the most aspect that contributes to the carbon emission.However,every 1% increase in the per capita consumption expenditure led to 0.309% carbon emission reduction.