可变参数无偏灰色模型的中长期负荷预测

Unbiased grey-forecasting model with unf ixed parameter for long-term load

由于传统灰色预测模型固有的偏差和模型参数的固定选择,导致预测精度较低,不适应中长期负荷预测。对传统模型进行改进,包括对历史数据的平滑处理、模型参数修正、等维新息数据处理和对预测值的修正等,改进后的模型能够较好的预测中长期负荷。

Because of the inherent bias in the traditional grey-forecasting model and the fixed choice of its parameter,the forecast precision is relatively low and unsuitable to the long-term forecasting.In this paper,the traditional model has been improved,including the historic data smoothing,model parameter modification,equal dimension new signal processing,and forecast result revision.The improved model can forecast the long-term load better.