粮食利润波动与粮食安全情景模拟分析——以稻谷、小麦、玉米为例

Scenario Simulation Analysis of Profit Fluctuation and Security of Grains——Taking Rice,Wheat and Corn as Examples

由于农业利润微薄,因此在我国,缺乏对农业利润的研究甚至被忽视。农业经营收入比重从1983年的52.5%,下降到了2008年的30.0%,这虽然很大程度上是农民收入构成多元化的结果,但这也是由农业利润极少并且一直未受到重视从而导致农民经营农业的积极性下降引起的。一旦这种趋势持续下去,势必影响农民种粮的积极性,从而影响我国的粮食供应。因此,为了增强农民种粮的积极性,应适时地对农民进行适当的补贴。本文以稻谷、小麦、玉米三种粮食的平均利润为例,在分析农业利润对粮食供应的影响的基础上,对农业利润波动与粮食供应进行情景模拟分析。

In China, researches of agricultural profit are lacking and even neglected because of the scanty agricultural profit. The agriculture income has inclined from 52. 5% in 1983 to 30. 0% in 2008, which could be the result of a more diversified income structure, however it could also be because of the scanty agriculture profit has discouraged peasants in a long term. Once this trend continues, the grain supply in China will without doubt be affected. Therefore, subsidies should be given in order to motivate the peasants. Taking rice, wheat and corn as examples,the author analyzes how grain profits influence its supply, and builds a scenario simulation analysis of profit fluctuation and security of grains based on the data.