基于ARIMA模型的我国民航客运量时序分析

Timing Analysis of Passenger Volume of Chinese Civil Aviation Based on ARIMA Model

我们从国家统计局官网下载了我国民航客运量月度数据序列,对此序列经过对数变换和差分使之平稳化,然后建立了ARIMA模型。经实证检验,所得模型较为合理,所得到的预测结果具有一定参考价值。

The monthly data series of Chinese passenger numbers were downloaded from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics,and after treatment through logarithmic transformation and difference,we established an ARIMA model.The empirical test shows that this model is reasonable with certain reference value.