摘要
应用系统动力学方法,建立了奶山羊生产系统动态仿真模型。采用不同政策在 IBM—PC 微型计算机上反复作了仿真运行,预演到2000年以来的乳山县奶山羊生产系统的时序状态和发展变化.否定了畜牧生产中单纯追求存栏头数的生产策略.优选的最佳决策为"质和量兼顾型"方案,此方案可使奶山羊生产系统发展成为投资少、见效快、收益高的高效生产系统。
With the method of system dynamics,the system dynamic simulatino model for dairy sheep production of Rushan was built in this paper.Applying different policies,we ran the operations repeatedly with IBM-PC microcompu- ter and previewed the time-sequence states and developement for Rushan dairy sheep production system from 1985 to 2000,rejecting the production policy of only increasing animal heads and selecting a quality-and-quantity plan as an optimal policy,which can develop the system into a high performance one with little investment and quick and big profits.
关键词
系统
动态仿真
奶山羊
dynamic simulation
model
system
