论“胡无百年之运”——17、18世纪朝鲜士人认识清朝的基本框架及其瓦解

Barbarian Regime's Shortlivedness: The Emergence and Disappearance of Koreans' Perception of Qing

在清朝入主中原的最初一百年间,基于元朝的历史经验而形成的"胡无百年之运"的观念,为朝鲜观察清朝、处理与清朝关系提供了基本的思维框架。朝鲜士人将赴清朝观察到的种种现象,视作清朝即将衰败、准备逃回关外的表征。根据这一思维定势,朝鲜君臣相信,清朝北还之后必将侵扰朝鲜。这一形势判断为朝鲜国内诸如北伐论、加强武备等政治主张提供了正当性根据。百年已至,清朝持续繁荣。这个现象超越了朝鲜士人既有的历史经验,"胡无百年之运"失去了对现实的解释效力,明清易代在思想上引发的震动至此才真正显露出来。

Originally the Koreans in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries perceived the Manchu’s Qing in light of the barbarian regime’s shortlivedness embodied in the collapsed Mongols’ Yuan. They even held that Qing would invade the Korea after retreating to the north. This perception justified Korea’s preparation against war. Nevertheless,Qing still enjoyed stability and prosperity one century after its founding. The alleged shortlivedness of barbarian regime fell off of itself. Drastic intellectual changes thus ensued.