用材林规划与投资决策方法研究

Studies on the Methods of Timber Forest Planning and Investment Decision Making

本文论证了以市场需求为导向,以增大等额年金收入、节约采运成本为目标的规划方法。通过确定各地区、各立地条件、各经营强度下生产某材种并运输到销区的综合经济评价系数来优化投资规模,合理布局用材林基地。提出了最佳经济轮伐期的计算方法。以动态规划联接投资,逐步实现长远规划目标。提出了资金来源定量分析方法,把资金来源同生产结构、所有制、区域、工程项目评价联系起来,从而为制定制度化、法律化的硬化投资来源方法提供了依据。

A series of methods for long-term timber forest planning and investment decision making are provided in this paper. Based on market forecasting, an objective model is established to achieve optimal equal-annual-payment and lower access cost. Various factors such as regional location, site class, management intensity and timber assortment are taken into consideration. By derterming comprehensive economic evaluatuon coefficients in various conditions, the objective investment scale and reson-avle allocation can be reached. The economic rotation age is caculated. By using a dynamic model, many relations such as planning and decision making, long-term and shart-term objectives, forest resources, reforestation, timber production and social demand are all properly handled. A quantative method for analysing capital supply is introduced so that production structure, ownership, location and project evaluation are all linked together.