通货膨胀预期、非对称性贬值与利润跨期转移——基于账税差异的实证检验

Expected Inflation,Asymmetric Devaluation Risk and Inter-period Profit Shifting: Based on Book-tax Difference

通货膨胀会将财富从债权人向债务人转移,因而对企业资产与负债具有非对称性影响。所得税作为一种现实债务,在通货膨胀条件下推迟支付会降低企业实际缴税成本。文章选择2003—2014年非金融类上市公司为研究样本,分别使用基于央行储户调查报告中的预期指数模型、随机游走模型与简单菲利普斯曲线模型估算预期通货膨胀率,实证检验通货膨胀预期是否导致企业通过利润跨期转移而推迟缴税。研究发现:当预期通货膨胀率越高时,企业利润跨期转移程度越大,且在名义税率越高、税收征管力度越宽松、盈利能力越强的公司中,面临通货膨胀预期条件下进行利润跨期转移的动机越显著。进一步研究发现:企业在预期通货膨胀率较高时,主要通过将未来成本费用转移至当期来实现利润跨期转移;上述研究结论不仅在排除税制改革因素的影响后依然稳健,而且还发现在通货膨胀预期条件下,所得税税率上升会显著抑制利润推迟行为,所得税税率下降会进一步加剧利润推迟行为。以上研究不仅揭示了通货膨胀预期影响微观企业会计行为的具体作用机理,而且为企业使用会计工具对冲通货膨胀、进而为公司创造价值提供经验证据。

Inflation can transfer wealth from creditors to debtors,which will have an asymmetrical influence on enterprises’assets and liabilities.Corporate income tax is a current liability,the actual tax costs will decrease if enterprises defer tax payment when the inflationary is considered.In this study,the expected inflation rate of non-financial listed companies from 2003 to 2014 is discussed by expected exponential model based on the central bank report on depositors,the random walk model and the simple Phillips curve model respectively.The influence of expected inflation on enterprises’delay of the payment of corporate income tax through inter-period profit shifting is tested.The results indicate that the expected inflation rate has a positive correlation with inter-period profit shifting.The relationship is more significant for enterprises with heavier tax burden,looser regulation and stronger profitability,which have stronger motivation to use inter-period profit shifting.Further tests show that enterprises will debit future expenses to the current period in order to achieve inter-period profit shifting if the high inflation rate is expected.The relationship is stable after removing the effect of the tax reform.The rising of corporate income tax rate significantly inhibits the profits deferring behavior while such behavior is intensified under the failing tax rate.In conclusion,these results demonstrate how the expected inflation influences the concrete transmission and action mechanism of micro behaviors of enterprises,and provide empirical evidence of how enterprises use accounting tools to hedge against inflation and create value for them.