黑龙江省林业产业集聚与产业结构优化关系——基于VAR模型的脉冲响应和方差分解分析

Relationship between Forestry Industry Agglomeration and Optimization of Industrial Structure in Heilongjiang Province——Analysis on Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition Based on VAR Model

基于2003～2016年黑龙江省林业区位熵与林业产业中第一、二、三产业比重以及林业产业结构优化程度值,构造了VAR模型,并利用脉冲响应和方差分解对它们之间的关系进行分析。结果发现:黑龙江省林业产业集聚在初期会带动林业第二产业发展,但随着时期的推移,带动作用逐渐减弱甚至产生了一定的抑制作用。而林业第三产业在前期会对林业产业集聚产生一定的抑制作用,在第6期以后逐渐产生拉动作用。所以,建设合理有效的林业产业集聚,是促进其与林业产业结构形成良性互动、促进黑龙江省林业产业发展的重要一步。

Based on the forestry location entropy and the proportion of primary, secondary, tertiary industry and the optimization degree of forestry industry structure in Heilongjiang Province from 2003 to 2016, the VAR model was constructed. The relationship between them was analyzed by using impulse response and variance decomposition. The results showed that accumulation of forestry industry led to the development of second industry in forestry in the early stage, but the effect of the gradual weakening of the course of the period was a certain suppress. In the early stage, the forestry tertiary industry had a certain inhibitory effect on the forestry industry agglomeration,and gradually produced a pulling effect after the sixth stage. Therefore, the construction of rational and effective forest industrial agglomeration would be an important step to promote the formation of positive interaction with the forestry industry structure and the development of the forestry industry in Heilongjiang Province.