“一带一盟”建设视域下中俄木质林产品双边贸易现状及潜力评价——基于贸易引力模型的实证研究

The Present Situation and Potential Evaluation on Bilateral Trade of Sino-Russia Woody Forest Products from the Perspective of“One Belt and One Alliance”Construction——An Empirical Analysis Based on Gravity Model

文章采用2001～2016年的木质林产品贸易数据,以"一带一盟"建设为研究背景,分析了中俄木质林产品双边贸易的现状、影响因素及贸易潜力。近年来中俄木质林产品贸易发展速度较快,双边贸易总额呈波动上涨趋势,通过分析中俄木质林产品产业内贸易情况,得出中俄木质林产品互补性较强。基于引力模型的实证研究表明,国家经济规模、人口、森林资源禀赋差异、资源禀赋差异等是影响中俄木质林产品双边贸易的重要因素。中俄木质林产品双边贸易潜力系数随着时间的变化逐年降低,证明双边贸易潜力提升明显。文章建议我国应充分利用"一带一盟"建设的推动作用,扩大与俄罗斯木质林产品贸易的规模和互补性,继续挖掘双边贸易潜力,实现互利共赢。

Based on the trade data of woody forest products from 2001 to 2016 and the construction of'One Belt and One Alliance',this paper analyzed the current situation,influential factors and trade potential of bilateral trade of woody forest products between China and Russia.In recent years,the trade between China and Russia in the wood-based forest products has been developing at a faster pace,and the total volume of bilateral trade fluctuated upward.By analyzing the intra-industry trade in the wood-based forest products in China and Russia,it was concluded that the wood-based forest products in China and Russia were highly complementary.The empirical study based on the gravity model showed that:the country’s economic size,population,differences in forest resource endowments and differences in resource endowments are all important factors that affected bilateral trade in Sino-Russian timber forest products.The potential coefficient of bilateral trade in China-Russia wood-based forest products has been decreasing year by year with changes in time,demonstrating that the potential for bilateral trade has been significantly raised.The article suggested that our country should make full use of the impetus of the construction of'One Belt and One League'to expand the scale and complementarity of trade with Russia’s woody forest products,continue to tap the potential of bilateral trade and achieve mutual benefits and win-win.