产业结构评价模型的构建及实证研究

Model-building and Empirical Study about the Evaluation of Industrial Structure

从现代化研究视角构建产业结构水平的评价模型并对2000～2015年世界131个国家的产业结构进行定量评价,结果显示:2015年,丹麦、美国等21个国家属于产业结构发达国家,韩国、葡萄牙等20个国家属于产业结构中等发达国家,巴西、中国等31个国家属于产业结构初等发达国家,尼日利亚等59个国家属于产业结构欠发达国家。2000-2015年期间,产业结构现代化国际地位升级国家有16个,降级国家有4个。产业结构发达国家的比例约为15%-17%,产业结构发展中国家的比例约为83%-85%。2015年中国的产业结构现代化指数为36,排在131个国家的第58位,处于产业结构发展中国家的中间水平。中国产业结构现代化指数与高收入国家平均值相比,绝对差距为63,相对差距约为1.8倍。农业增加值比例、知识产业就业比例和劳动生产率等单指标的国际差距尤为明显。

This article constructs the evaluation model of the industrial structure from the viewpoint of modernization research, and measures the level of industrial structure among 131 countries from 2000 to 2015. The results show that: in 2015, as for the level of industrial structure, 21 countries belong to the developed countries,20 belong to the medium developed country, 31 belong to the primary developed countries, 59 belong to the less developed countries. From 2000 to 2015, 16 countries upgraded their international position of industrial structure modernization and 4 downgraded. The proportion of developed countries in industrial structure is about15%-17%, and that of developing countries is about 83%-85%. China’s industrial structure modernization index(ISMI)in 2015 is 36, 58 th in the rank of 131 countries and a mid-level among developing countries of industrial structure. Compared with the high-income countries, China’s ISMI has an absolute difference of 63 times and a relative difference of 1.8 times. The single indicators, such as the proportion of agricultural added-value, proportion of knowledge-industry employment and labor productivity, have the greatest gap between China and the developed countries.