自然灾害型重大危机事件对区域旅游业冲击的效果评估:基于合成控制法的量化研究

Evaluation of the Impact of Disaster Crisis on Regional Tourism:Based on the Synthetic Control Method

近年来,旅游业正日益成为经济增长的支柱产业,自然灾害型重大危机事件以其突发性和不可控性往往给区域旅游业的发展造成剧烈的冲击,评估此类事件的后果和影响对旅游业的布局与发展,特别是对灾后区域旅游业的复苏与旅游形象重建有重要指导作用。文章以四川汶川地震为例,采用合成控制法构建反事实框架,量化评估了四川省入境旅游业因地震的损失程度。实证结果表明,汶川地震使四川省入境旅游业遭受了严重损失,2008年国际旅游外汇收入比预计值减少424.55百万美元,预期下降幅度达到73.4%;地震对入境旅游业的影响持续到2010年,直至2011年才基本恢复到震前水平。研究结果表明,地震对旅游业的影响剧烈且不是暂时性的,在旅游业的布局与发展、灾区旅游业重建规划设计及实践中应对此予以充分重视。

The industrial revolution has caused the improvement of production efficiency and the accumulation of social wealth,which has promoted the growing up of tourism in the modern world.In recent years,tourism has increasingly become the pillar industry of economic growth,but as a service,export and joint industry,the development of tourism is inevitably affected and restricted by various internal and external factors.Many studies have shown that factors affecting regional tourism include economic development,tourism resources,transportation level,policy and special events.Among the many factors affecting the development of tourism,the natural disaster crisis often has a severe impact on the development of regional tourism due to its sudden and uncontrollable nature.Assessing the consequences and impacts of such incidents will play an important role in the overall arrangement and development of tourism,especially in the recovery of regional tourism and the reconstruction of tourism image in post-disaster areas.Taking the Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan province as an example,this paper uses the synthetic control method to construct a counterfactual framework to quantitatively assess the damage caused by earthquakes in the inbound tourism industry in Sichuan province.Firstly,this paper constructs a panel data set of 25 provincial administrative units in China from 1990 to 2014.The indicators include foreign exchange income of international tourism,number of international tourists hosted,per capita gross domestic product,consumption level of residents,number of star hotels,urban per capita road area and lagging items of foreign exchange income of international tourism.Among them,foreign exchange income of international tourism is the dependent variables of research.Then the mathematical optimization model is used to select samples from other provinces to establish an ideal control group.The predictive variables in the control group are optimized continuously by weighted average method to simulate the economic characteristics of Sichuan province.Finally,we get the expected change curve of international tourism foreign exchange income in Sichuan province.The empirical results show that the Wenchuan earthquake has caused serious losses to the inbound tourism industry in Sichuan province.In 2008,international tourism foreign exchange income decreased by 424.55 million US dollars compared with the expected value,and the expected decline rate reached 73.4%.The impact of the earthquake on inbound tourism continued until2010,and did not recover to the pre-earthquake level until 2011.The results show that the impact of earthquakes on tourism is intense and not temporary.It should be given full attention in the layout and development of tourism,planning and design of tourism reconstruction in disaster areas.This study is helpful to enrich the literature on the impact of important events on tourism industry,and also provides theoretical support for decision-making at the functional level.Firstly,this paper innovatively applies counterfactual analysis method to tourism forecasting,broadens the thinking of conventional tourism forecasting research and greatly improves the accuracy of potential results evaluation of tourism-related variables.Secondly,the results of our research can provide some ideas for the adjustment of emergency disaster management mechanism.Through the assessment of the impact severe natural disasters,we can effectively identify the nature of the impact of disasters,including the degree and the duration of the impact,and then it is helpful in guiding the allocation of relief funds,optimizing the planning design and practice of post-disaster regional tourism reconstruction,so as to create a good legal environment for natural disasters prevention and response.