“一带一路”背景下基于SD的广西邮轮产业竞争力研究

Research on the Competitiveness of Guangxi Cruise Industry Based on SD Analysis in the Context of “One Belt and One Road”

邮轮产业被誉为"漂浮在海上的黄金产业"。广西面临着中国一东盟自由贸易区建设、"一带一路"等多重机遇,具有漫长海岸线与丰富旅游资源的广西应充分发展邮轮旅游产业。本文以广西邮轮产业为研究对象,创新性地将系统动力学(SD)仿真方法应用于邮轮产业竞争力研究领域。根据系统动力学的基本思想,对旅游产业竞争力影响因素分析的基础上建立邮轮旅游竞争业绩、邮轮旅游基础竞争力、邮轮旅游竞争潜力三个子系统,再根据子系统间的关系绘制出流程图,并确定其中的方程式,然后结合广西最近几年旅游业的统计数据进行分析,并进行系统仿真。基于仿真分析结果,提出发展广西邮轮产业的战略性意见,以提升广西邮轮产业竞争力。

Cruise industry is known as "the gold industry floating on sea ". Guangxi is now faced with opportunities like the establishment of Sino- ASEAN free trade zone as well as "one belt and one road". With a long coastline and rich tourism resources,Guangxi should seize opportunities and involve its advantages to make cruise tourism and its relative industry chain develop rapidly. This paper aims to study Guangxi’ s cruise industry by using system dynamics( SD) simulation methods in order to analyze the competitiveness of the cruise industry from a brand new viewpoint. The author adopts the basic concepts of system dynamics to analyze the influencing factors of tourism industry,and establishes three sub- systems,namely competitive performance of cruise tourism,the basic competitiveness of cruise tourism and potential competitiveness of cruise tourism. After sorting out the relations among these three sub- systems,a flow chart and an equation are made. Finally,the author analyzes Guangxi’ s tourism industry development and conducts a relevant system simulation on the basis of the latest statistics. Summarizing all these,this paper puts forward some strategic measures for the competitive development of Guangxi’ s cruise industry. Then the author made an analysis of the cruise industry development in Guangxi on the basis of a statistical analysis of the tourism industry in recent years,and conducted the system simulation by using relevant data of Guangxi. Based on the simulation system,suitable strategic suggestions of Guangxi cruise industry were put forward to improve the competitiveness of the cruise tourism industry in Guangxi.