中国城市蔓延的驱动因素分析及其贡献分解

An Analysis on the Driving Factors of Urban Sprawl in China and Its Contribution Decomposition

文章从政府和市场两个角度对我国城市蔓延的驱动因素进行了研究。首先,通过构建一个城市土地市场的局部均衡模型,对城市蔓延的驱动因素进行了理论分析,并据此得到了城市蔓延驱动因素方程。进一步地,利用2000—2014年全国35个大中城市的面板数据对我国城市蔓延驱动因素方程进行了估计,结果表明:在全国层面,人均工矿仓储用地水平、人均小汽车数量和人均道路面积的提高显著地驱动了城市蔓延,而土地市场化水平的提高则显著抑制了城市蔓延;从不同时期来看,人均小汽车数量与土地市场化水平在金融危机后才变显著;从区域差异来看,人均小汽车数量与土地市场化水平只在中部地区是显著的,而人均道路面积只在东部与西部地区是显著的。在此基础上,利用夏普里值分解方法测算了不同因素对城市蔓延的贡献度,结果显示:就我国城市蔓延的具体模式而言,在全国层面以及金融危机前后都属于"市场与政府双驱动型",在东部与西部地区属于"政府主导驱动型",在中部地区则属于"市场主导驱动型"。最后,提出了抑制与治理我国城市蔓延的政策建议。

This paper analyzes the factors that affect the urban sprawl of China from the dual perspective of government and market. First,we build a partial equilibrium model of urban land market to analyze the factors affecting urban sprawl theoretically,and then derive the equation of factors affecting urban sprawl.Moreover,we estimate the equation above using the panel dataset of China’s 35 medium and large sized cities from 2000 to 2014. First,the results show that the increase of per capita cars,roads and industrial land contributes to the urban sprawl significantly,while the improvement of land marketization level curbs the urban sprawl significantly. Second,the roles of per capita cars and land marketization level become significant only after the 2007 global financial crisis. Third,as for the regional differentiation,per capita cars and land marketization level are significant only in the middle region of China and per capita roads are significant in the eastern and western region of China. Based on above analysis,we calculate the contribution degree of different factors using the Shapley value decomposition method and find that in terms of the pattern of urban sprawl,the sample of whole country and before or after the 2007 global financial crisis are all the pattern of market and government together driving,the eastern and western region of China are the pattern of government dominant driving,while the middle region of China is the pattern of market dominant driving. Lastly,we put forward suggestions about how to control and govern the urban sprawl of China.