中国对东盟10国直接投资效率及影响因素研究

Chinese Outward FDI Efficiency and Determinants in ASEAN Members

东盟国家是中国的近邻,中国对东盟国家的直接投资规模不断增长、投资深度不断加强,但同时也面临诸如投资效率不高、区位分布不平衡等一系列问题。本研究采用2005—2016年度数据,构建了中国对东盟国家直接投资随机前沿引力模型,实证分析了中国对东盟国家直接投资效率的重要影响因素,实证结果表明:东道国的市场规模、经济发展水平、贸易开放度、法律制度和政府效率等指标对中国对外直接投资效率存在正效应,促进了中国投资效率提升,而距离、东道国稳定程度、东道国民主自由等指标对中国对外直接投资效率存在负效应,对中国投资效率提升产生了阻碍作用。为促进我国对东盟国家投资的健康持续发展,我们应该:(1)加强与东盟国家的国际产能合作;(2)有效利用多双边合作机制,与东盟国家相向而行;(3)增强我国企业的风险防控意识,提高我国对外投资抗风险能力;(4)促进对东盟国家直接投资的多元化发展。

ASEAN countries areChinese close neighbors.On this basis,the scale and depth of Chinese investment in ASEAN are enhanced continuously in recent years,but Chinese outward FDI also faces troubles such as low investment efficiency,regional distribution imbalance and so on.This paper employs Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model using the data from 2005 to 2016 to estimate Chineseoutward FDI efficiency and its determinants in ASEAN members.Theempirical result shows that factors like the host country’s market size,level of economic development,degree of trade openness,rule of law and government effectiveness have positive effect on Chineseoutward FDI efficiency,and promote the efficiency increase of Chineseoutward FDI.The factors like distance,the stability of host country and host country’s democracy and freedom indicators have negative effects on Chineseoutward FDI efficiency,which are hindrances to the promotion of Chinese investment efficiency.In order to promote the healthy and sustainable development of Chinese investment in ASEAN,we should:(1)Strengthen international cooperation on production capacity with ASEAN countries.(2)Make effective use of the multilateral and bilateral cooperation mechanism to realize common development with ASEAN countries.(3)Strengthen the awareness of risk prevention of Chinese enterprises and improve the risk resistance capacity of Chinese foreign investment.(4)Promote the diversification of FDI in ASEAN countries.