潜艇事故概率的模糊事件树分析

Fuzzy Probability Calculation of Submarine Accidents

潜艇事故概率计算在潜艇风险分析过程中占有很重要的地位,可以为潜艇结构系统综合的风险分析提供基础。计算结果表明,采用模糊事件树方法有利于了解潜艇结构系统事故的规律。在统计资料不全的情况下,模糊事件树比传统的方法更具有分析优势。本文主要介绍了模糊事件树在潜艇事故概率中的应用。

The probability calculations of submarine accidents are very important in the process of submarine risk assessment, which can be applied as a base for comprehensive risk assessment of submarine structure system. The results of calculation indicate that FETA (Fuzzy Event Tree Analysis) method applied is better to know the rules of accidents about submarine structure system. When the statistical data is not enough or unknown,FETA method is more convenient method in the analysis. In this peper, the application of FETA method is introduced to calculate probability of submarine structure.