2002/2003年度世界和中国小麦生产与进出口形势分析

Analysis on the Production and Trade of Wheat within World and China in 2002/2003

综合分析了2002/2003年度世界和中国小麦的生产、消费、库存、进出口形势和贸易格局发生的重大变化,并对未来走势进行了预测,以期为指导我国小麦生产发展提供参考。由于受干旱等因素的影响,2002/2003年度美国、澳大利亚、加拿大、欧盟和阿根廷五大传统小麦出口单位的小麦产量合计为18739万t,较上年度减产8.6%;期末总库存量为3000万t,较上年度减少34.8%。这五大出口单位2002/2003年度的小麦总出口量预计为6416万t,较上年度降低1590万t,在世界小麦出口贸易中的份额将由上年度的75%下降到68%。2002年我国小麦的进口量为60.5万t,出口量为68.8万t,出口量首次超过进口量。预计2003年我国小麦出口的良好态势将继续保持。

Because of drought and other climatic factors, the total wheat grain yield of the United States, Australia, Canada, EU and Argentina is about 187 390 000 t in 2002/2003 and is decreased by 8.6% than the last year. The total stock in the end of 2003 was decreased by 34.8% than the last year. In 2002/2003, the wheat export of these 5 units is about 64 160 000 t and decreased by 15 900 000 t than last year. The portion of these 5 units in world wheat export will be decreased from 75% in 2001/2002 to 68% in 2002/2003. In 2002, Chinese wheat import was about 605 000 t and export was about 688 000 t. It was the first time in China that the export is higher than the import. It is estimated that the wheat export situation of China will be keeped.