风暴潮灾与月相

THE DISASTER OF STORM SURGES AND THE PHASE OF MOON

本文以实测资料为依据,统计分析了风暴潮灾、风暴潮、登陆台风、天文高潮等与月相的关系。统计资料表明,登陆台风和台风风暴潮发生在大(小)潮期的次数相对较多,略大于平均数,但它们与月相没有明显的因果关系,它们相对于月相的分布大致上是随机的,如果台风在天文大潮期间登陆,台风引起的暴潮与天文潮叠加后成灾的概率明显增大,但也不一定成灾;成了灾的,往往是风暴潮峰值适逢当日的天文高潮所致。

The relation between disaster of storm surges, storm surge, landfalling typhoon, astronomical high tide etc. and the phase of moon is statistically analysed based on observational data in this paper.The statistical results show that the causality is not evident between landfalling typhoon, storm surge and the phase of moon. Occurrences of typhoon and storm surge are roughly stochastic in relation to the phase of moon. If a typhoon lands in the period of astronomical high tide, the probability of occurrence of disaster wil obviously increase. Tidal disasters usually happen at the time when the peak surge coincides with the dally astronomical high tide.