在货物贸易中的货币套期保值实证研究

Positive Research on Currency Hedging Insurance in Goods Trade

在国际金融实证研究中一直令人迷惑不解的是很难证实外汇波动对国际贸易存在大量的负面影响。通常的解释是因为货币套期保值很有效。文章运用1000多对国家之间的贸易数据从实证的角度验证了上述解释的合理性。通过研究有两点发现:第一,没有证据表明套期保值假设的合理性;第二,对贸易水平处于高层次的国家而言,汇率波动对贸易产生的负面影响远大于贸易水平处于低层次的国家。

In positive research of international finance people are always puzzled by the problem that is very difficult to confirm the large number of negative influences of foreign exchange fluctuation on international trade. A common explanation is the availability of hedging insurance. From the angle of the positive research, this paper examines the rationality of the above explanation by using the trade data among over 1000 pairs of countries. There are two main findings in this research. The first is that there is no evidence to support the rationality of hedging hypothesis. The second is that, the negative influence of exchange rate fluctuation on the countries on higher trade levels is far more than that on the countries on lower trade levels.