摘要
20世纪90年代出口的增长对江苏的国民经济总量的发展和结构的提升都起到了十分重要的作用。本文采用江苏省20世纪90年代的时间序列资料,拟合出其指数型出口趋势线,据此衡量出各期的出口不稳定值,并以地理集中度、商品集中度、初级产品比率、纺织产品比率、机构设备产品比率为解释变量进行了回归分析,结果认为:造成江苏省出口不稳定的主要因素是地理集中度、纺织产品比率和商品集中度。要保证江苏省出口的持续、快速、健康发展,只有通过实施市场和商品的多元化战略,保证纺织、机电两大类商品出口的共同健康增长。
In 1990s the increase of export played a very important role in the economic development of Jiangsu province.In order to analyze the export instability,the author set up a regression moded involving five independent variables.The conclusion is that the concentration of export market,the percentage of textile products and the concentration of commodity are the main effective factors.And the diversification strategy of both commodity and market is still the essential way to reduce unsystematic risk and keep rapid growth of export and economy of Jiangsu province.
出处
《华东经济管理》
2003年第1期4-6,共3页
East China Economic Management
关键词
江苏
出口贸易
不稳定性
成因
对策
export instability
diversification of trade
concentration of market
