Gutenberg-Richter公式和灰色理论GM模型在地震预测中的联合应用

Joint Application of Gutenberg-Richter Formula and Grey Theory GM Model to Earthquake Prediction

以华北地区 (33°～ 4 3°N ,10 9°～ 12 4°E)地震为例 ,用Gutenberg -Richter公式研究了地震均匀分布情况。结果表明 :自 1970年到 2 0 0 1年以来 ,本地区 2 0≤M <4 0的地震偏少、 4 0≤M <6 0的地震偏多、 6 0≤M<7 0的地震偏少、M≥ 7 0的地震偏多 ;然后择其将导致本地区较大社会影响、人员伤亡、经济损失的偏少地震——— 6 0≤M <7 0级地震进行灰色理论GM模型预测。通过上面的应用 ,使两理论优点在地震预测中得到结合 ,地震预测更有的放矢 ,预测结果更可信、更有效。

Uniform distribution of the earthquakes which occurred in north China(33°～43° N,109°～124°E)is studied through using Gutenberg-Richter formula.The results show that there were less earthquakes with 2 0≤ M <4 0 and 6 0≤ M <7 0 and more earthquakes with 4 0≤ M <6 0 and M ≥7 0 in this region from 1970 to 2001.And then,prediction of earthquake using grey theory GM model and selecting less earthquakes with 6 0≤< M <7 0 which will result in social influence,injuries and deaths and economical losses in this region is made.The joint application of the two methods will make earthquake predicion more effective and more reliable.