日本对外贸易结构的调整与雁行模式的前景

Adjustments of Japan's Foreign Trade Structure and the Future of Flying Geese Model

20世纪90年代以来,日本和其他东亚国家的经济发展态势形成了鲜明的对照。日本经济陷入了第二次世界大战后最长的停滞期,"四小龙"和东盟国家则较快地摆脱了金融危机的影响,中国也保持了自改革开放以来的高增长态势。在此背景下,日本官方指出,以日本为领头雁的东亚雁行模式业已结束。那么,日本官方的这一表态是否表明雁行模式真的终结了呢?本文对比了日本与"四小龙"和部分东盟国家出口主导产品的差异,阐明了日本和中国在经济和科技领域的巨大差距之后,说明雁行模式仍有存在的必要,关键取决于日本经济的恢复和对外贸易结构的调整。

From 1990s of 20 century, there exist great differences between Japan and other eastern Asia countries in the economic growth. Four small dragons and ASEAN countries get rid of the impact of financial crisis quickly. China keep the high level of economic growth begin from the taking of reform and open policy. Under these backgrounds, Japanese official reports declared that the flying geese model in eastern Asia was over. Is the declaration show the finishing of flying geese model? After comparing the main export commodities among Japan and other eastern Asia countries and the big gap in economy and science and technology exist between Japan and China. We make a conclusion that flying model will still play roles in the future. However, the future of the model depends on the economic prosper and the adjustments of Japan's foreign trade structure.