江苏省人口对耕地数量驱动作用的时空变异

Driving Effects of Population on Cultivated Land in Jiangsu Province

通过对江苏省人口和耕地数量进行时序分析及区域差异分析得出结论:人口增长是耕地面积减少的重要驱动力;随着经济的发展,人口增长对耕地面积减少的驱动作用逐步减小;人口对耕地减少的驱动机理包括房屋建筑占地、交通建设用地、城市规模扩张和用地方式转化等4个方面。针对人增地减的发展态势,提出了控制人口规模、提高人口素质、加强耕地保护和加大土地复垦与土地整理力度等5个方面的对策。

This paper analysed the driving effect of population on cultivated land decrease in Jiangsu Province by time sequence and regional difference.It is suggested as follows:1.The population increasing is one of the vital driving forces of cultivated land decrease. 2. As the economy develops, the population increase plays a less important role in cultivated land decrease.3.The driving mechanism mainly includes residential construction, communication lines construction, urban area expansion, and the change of land use. To counter the tendency of cultivated land decrease with the population increase, some measures were proposed.