经济增长的阶段性假说和波动性溢出效应检验

The Hypothesis of Growth Regimes and Testing for Fluctuation Spillover Effect

增长性和波动性是增长型经济周期的典型特征。如果增长水平与波动程度之间负相关,则降低经济波动程度有助于经济稳定和持续发展;如果波动性对于增长水平存在"溢出效应",则适度经济波动将促进经济增长。实证检验表明,增长性与波动性之间的关联依赖于经济的发展阶段。目前我国经济存在显著的波动"溢出效应",因此应该继续保持积极经济政策的顺周期方向。

Growth and volatility are the characteristic features of growing economic cycle.If they are correlated negatively, decreasing volatility is helpful to stabilize economic growth and sustainable development.If there is volatility spillover effect on growth, moderate volatility will promote growth.We find that the correlation between growth and volatility depends on the phases of economic development. We also find that there are significant volatility spillover effects in the economy of China.Therefore, we should keep the procyclical directions of active economic policies.