一种有效的农业气象灾害的定量性定义方法

An Efficient Method of Quantitative Definition of Agricultural Meteorological Disaster

至今为止,关于农业气象灾害只有定性的定义而没有统一的定量定义,针对这种情况,该文给出了统一的定量性定义方法。其中关于确定趋势产量的研究,提出了用AIC、BIC来给出统一的标准。在气象产量表示方法的选取方面,提出应对绝对气象产量序列做正态性检验的准则。并以吉林省的30多个市、县的三种主要农作物的数据为例,阐述了如何应用上述方法对农业气象灾害进行定量定义及预测,计算结果表明此方法给出了统一标准,不仅理论上合理,而且实际效果也很好。

Up to now,there is only qualitative definition while there is not unified quantitative definition to agricultural meteorological disaster.So one unified method of quantitative definition is given.At the same time AIC and BIC are put forward to give the unified standard for many methods of gaining trend production.Additionally,normal test should be done to the sequence of absolute meteorological production in expressing meteorological production.The methods mentioned above are applied to the data of Jin Lin Province,the criteria of quantitative definition to agricultural meteorological disaster are given,the methods are proved to be efficient in practice by the predicted results.