2002年氧化铝市场回顾与2003年展望

Review of alumina market in 2002 and its prospects for 2003

文章评述了2002年的氧化铝市场。2002年全球冶金级氧化铝产量的增幅低于消费的增长,2001年严重供过于求的局面大有好转,市场供需趋于平衡,全年价格基本平稳。国内氧化铝产量继续增长,但由于原铝产量增长迅速,氧化铝进口量仍大幅增长。预计2003年全球氧化铝产量将增长5.4％,消费量将增长7.7％,供给短缺约47万t,价格重心将比2002年明显上移。

In this paper, alumina market in 2002 is reviewed in retrospect to the effect that the increaed global output of alumina for metallurgical purposes was less than the increased global consumption of alumina with the result of an obvious upturn in market situation, a trend of market equilibrium of supply and demand, and a basic stability of market prices. Also, domestic alumina output in 2002 was continuously on the increase, but the alumina imports still increased by a big margin, because of rapid increase of primary aluminum output. It is predicted that the annual growth rate of alumina output in 2003 would be 5. 4% and that of global consumption in 2003 would be 7. 7% with the result of a shortage of 470 thousand t alumina in global market. Moreover, the alumine price would be upward obviously as compared with the price in 2002