两极汇率制度论与人民币汇率制度中长期选择

A Research on the Two Poles Theory of Exchange-rate Regime and Midterm and Long-term Choice of China's Exchange-rate Regime

两极汇率制度论是近年来兴起的汇率制度理论,它认为唯一持久的汇率制度是自由浮动制或固定汇率制,任何介于两者之间的中间汇率制度都正在消失或应当消失。本文通过解评两极汇率制度的内涵,结合对"两极"与"中间道路"汇率选择制度的关键因素分析,对人民币汇率制度的中长期选择进行了较为深入的探讨。

The two poles exchangerate regime theory is a newborn theory which holds that the only lasting exchange rate regime should be either floatingrate or fixedrate, and other intermediate regime is vanishing or should vanish. By analyzing the two poles exchange rate regime and together with the analysis of vital factors in selecting exchange rate between two poles and intermediate exchange rate, the paper makes thorough probe into midterm and longterm choice of China's exchange rate regime.