抚宁县电力负荷的中期预测

The Mid-prediction on Power Load of Funing County

根据秦皇岛市抚宁县 1992～ 2 0 0 1年 10a的实际用电量数据 ,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型对未来 10a的用电量进行预测 .因未通过关联度校验和后验差检验 ,故提出了灰色指数平滑预测方法 ,先对原始数据序列进行一次指数平滑 ,然后再建立灰色模型 .经检验模型合格 。

The prediction is attempted to make on the power consumption to the next following 10 years from the year of 1992 to 2001 according to the practical consumption data in Funing County,Qinhuangdao City.The prediction is based on the grey model.As it doesn't pass the relevance testing and post tesing error testing,the load prediction of grey model is put forward.First,the original data in order is arranged,then the grey model is set up.The accuracy of the prediction can be raised if the testing model is qualified.