堤防险情严重程度划分与识别方法探讨

Method for classification and identification of severity of dyke dangers

根据险情对堤防稳定安全威胁性大小将险情划分为早、中、晚期 .在对不同险情破坏机理定性分析的基础上 ,制定了定性与定量相结合的划分险情严重程度参照表 ,进而采用模糊模式识别方法对险期进行定量评判 ,从而为选用和制定抢护防案提供依据 .

Dyke dangers are classified into three stages, i.e. the early stage, the middle stage, and the later stage, according to their threats to the stability and safety of dykes. Based on a qualitative analysis of the failure mechanism for different stages, a quantitative and qualitative combined reference table is formulated for classification of the severity of dangers, and a fuzzy mode identification method is further used for quantitative assessment so as to determine the stage of dangers. The method provides a basis for selection and formulation of schemes for emergencies.