组合预测误差的原因分析

An analysis on the errors of combination forecasting

首次提出信息量、独有信息量、公有信息量的概念及其计算方法.通过对各单项预测方法的权重与其独有信息量的比较,分析了导致组合预测误差的各种原因.

The conceptions of information, solo information ,common inf ormation and the method of calculating them was firstly put forward in this paper. The causes were analyzed thoroughly which produced the errors of combination forecasting by comparison with the solo information and weight of each forecasting method.