新世纪初的独联体:转机与挑战

Confederation of Independent States: Opportunity of Change and Challenges

从2000年开始,独联体国家间的合作一改“车轮转而车难行”的低迷状态,开始给人耳目一新的感觉。独联体各成员国在“独”与“联”的问题上基本消除分歧,普遍认为独联体是进行多边合作的最好形式;次地区一体化呈现出超越独联体集体合作的发展势头,这种趋势有利于使整个独联体联合起来;作为两大次地区一体化组织“领头羊”的俄罗斯与乌克兰的双边关系日渐成熟且具有了特殊的意义;独联体反恐中心、联合快速反应部队和独联体集体安全条约组织的建立标志着独联体国家间的军事合作正在出现不同于以往的全新变化。然而,这些积极因素的出现并不意味着独联体一体化出现了根本性的“质”的飞跃。这不过是独联体一体化进程中加速量变的过程,是总的量变过程中的部分质变。独联体一体化若要达到量变的关节,实现量变到质变的飞跃,还有相当漫长的路要走。

Starting in 2000, the CIS interrelationship showed an abrupt change from its low ebb condition characterized by 'wheels revolving, but the vehicle stuck up. ' It began to give a new, fresh impression. The CIS members basically ironed out their differences on the issue of 'confederation' and 'independence. ' They came to a common agreement that the CIS was the best form of multilateral cooperation. The integration of sub - regions showed a momentum of collective cooperation transcending the CIS, a momentum favorable to the alignment of the CIS as a whole. The bilateral relations between Russia and Ukraine as bellwethers of the two integrated sub -regional organizations gradually matured and possessed special significance. The establishment of CIS anti-terrorism center, joint express reaction troops and collective security treaty organization marked a brand new change in the military cooperation between the CIS members. But the emergence of these positive factors did not mean a radical, qualitative change in the CIS integration. It was only an accelerated process of quantitative change, or a partial qualitative change in the general process of quantitative change. The CIS will have a long way to go if it is to come to the critical quantitative joining point in its integration and leap from quantitative to qualitative change.