“特朗普时代”的美国政治:延续、变化与走向

American Politics in the Trump Era: Continuation,Change and Trend

'特朗普时代'的美国政治进入了历史周期更迭的新阶段。作为2016年选举背景的民怨情绪持续累积,特朗普在总体民意表现极为负面的同时,却得到了共和党党内的坚定支撑。面对如此极化的民意开局,特朗普通过利用社交媒体实现对共和党支持者的强化,但社交媒体也对特朗普执政权威形成了挑战;同时,特朗普更为依赖总统行政令等'单边方式'推进重要政策,进而陷入了无法有效兑现承诺的困境。在'特朗普时代',政党政治以'党内政治'即民主、共和两党的党内整合作为优先主题,长期而言正在进行着以政党重组与区域变动为体现的周期更迭。新政治周期的调整,是对美国金融危机以来国家面对的经济发展与族裔结构等新挑战的必然回应,而特朗普的当选及其带来的不确定性正是新周期更迭这一时代特征的集中体现。

American politics in the Trump era entered a new stage of the historical cycle.The public resentment as the background of the 2016 elections continues to accumulate.Confronting extremely negative overall public opinion,Trump has been firmly supported by the GOP base.With such polarized public opinion,Trump has strengthened the GOP base by using social media,which has also challenged the authority of the Trump administration.Meanwhile,Trump is more dependent on the way of'executive order'to promote important policies,and caught in the plight of being unable to effectively fulfill the promise.In the Trump era,the'inner-party politics'is the priority theme of American politics,which means that the democrats and the republicans focus on their own party integration.In the long run,the core theme is the historical cycle change with party realignment and sectional change.The adjustment of the new political cycle is an inevitable response to new challenges such as economic development and ethnic structure since the U.S.financial crisis,and Trump’s election and its uncertainty are the concentrated expression of the new cycle change.