从奥巴马到特朗普:美国东南亚政策展望

From Obama to Trump: The U.S. Southeast Asia Policy Outlook

21世纪以来,中国实力地位全面、快速地提升引发了美国的不安。美国在东亚地区的主导地位受到了中国崛起的冲击。权力转移过程中的中美安全竞争首先在东亚展开。~①因此在奥巴马任内,随着反恐战争的结束,东南亚地区在美国战略排序中的优先级明显有所提高。特朗普当选后,美国的东南亚政策,乃至亚太战略都再次面临一定的不确定性。东南亚国家普遍对美国新政府尚不明确的地区政策感到焦虑,特别是对特朗普是否会延续奥巴马时期对东南亚的关注表示担忧。对中国来说,美国的东南亚政策与南海问题的走向、中国与东盟的交往以及'一带一路'倡议的实施等也有着密不可分的关系。从目前来看,特朗普政府表示出了在此前良好关系的基础上稳定发展与东南亚国家关系的意愿,但是能否实现取决于美国的战略排序、中美关系等。

Since the beginning of the new century,China’s comprehensive and rapid growth caused uneasiness of U.S.. The U.S. dominance in East Asia has been weakened by China’s rise. The Sino-U.S. competition in the process of power transition was first launched in East Asia. Therefore,in Obama’s administration,with the end of the war on terror,Southeast Asia became one of U.S. strategic priorities. However,since Trump has been elected as the president,the U.S.policy in Southeast Asia and even in Asia-Pacific once again faces some uncertainty. Southeast Asian countries are generally anxious on the new government’s unclear regional policy, especially whether Trump will continue Obama’s strategic focus in Southeast Asia. For China,U.S. Southeast Asia policy will affect the trend of South China Sea issue as well as the implementation of'One Belt and One Road Initiative '. For the time being, Trump administration has expressed its willingness to steadily develop relations with Southeast Asian countries on the basis of previous good relations,but whether it can realize depends on U.S.global strategic priorities and Sino-U.S. relations.