美国学界对中国崛起的认知及争论——基于《外交》杂志(1993—2017年)文本和数据分析

The Recognition and Discussions about The Rise of China by American Scholars:A Textual and Statistical Analysis Based on Articles in Foreign Affairs(1993—2017)

近年有关'中国崛起'的一系列问题在美国学界引发很大争论,这些争论主要围绕中美权力对比、中美冲突可能性以及中国与国际秩序之间的关系展开,美国学界对此既存在共识也存在分歧。由于美国对中国崛起的认知对于中国坚持走和平发展道路具有重要意义,因此本文试图通过美国《外交》杂志(1993—2017年)进行文本和数据分析,从相关刊文出发讨论自冷战结束以来美国学界如何看待中国崛起问题。笔者根据美国学者对待中国崛起的不同观点进行分类,详细阐述代表性学者的逻辑及其与其他观点的区别,进而探究产生这种区别的原因。通过研究发现,虽然不少美国学者在刊文中对中国崛起过程中存在的某些问题表达了负面看法,但是其主流观点认为中国有实现和平崛起的可能性,中美冲突也并非不可避免,现行国际秩序能够容纳和整合崛起的中国,并且中国也愿意融入当前国际体系。此外,作者的身份与其观点之间存在内在联系,不同作者还就具体议题展开激烈辩论。

In recent years,a series of problems about The Rise of China triggers a large wave of discussion in American academia.These discussions carry out mainly about three aspects:The comparison of China and America’s power,the possibility of conflict between China and America,and the relationship between China and international order.There are both consensus and disagreements on this issue in American academia.America’s attitude toward this issue have a significance on China’s road of peaceful development,as a result of which,this paper tries to make a textual and statistical analysis of this problem based on the relevant articles in Foreign Affairs from 1993to2017,and discusses how the American scholars look at The Rise of China since the end of Cold War.The author categorizes the different views of American scholars about The Rise of China,expound the logic of representative scholars and the difference between his/her views and others’views,and then explore the reasons behind the difference.It finds that most of the American scholars show their negative opinion about The Rise of China.However,themainstream opinion of American scholars is that China has the possibility of achieving a peaceful rise,the conflict between China and America is not inevitable,the current international order can integrate the rising China,and China is willing to participate into the current international system.It also finds that there is an intrinsic relation between authors’identities and their views.What’s more,theyalso get into a heated discussion around specific issues.