美元与人民币的政治逻辑——基于非对称相互依赖的分析视角

The Political Logic between U.S.Dollar and RMB——Based on the Perspective of Asymmetric Interdependence

国际货币是一个利益与权力的矛盾统一体,其政治逻辑在于利益最大化与获取更多货币权力,利益与权力的对立统一及其双向动态转化过程构成了国际货币关系。本文构建了国际货币的政治框架体系,探讨了国际货币的政治结构、制衡策略与博弈机制等。研究发现国际货币的政治结构演化遵循从低级到高级、从霸权到民主,即从货币霸权到寡头,再到货币协作的客观规律。实证分析美元与人民币的货币关系,也清晰地揭示了国际货币政治的发展规律。为了进一步阐释这一理论发现,本文深入分析了美元与人民币的政治决策、货币政治结构、货币制衡策略。本研究的理论发现对推进人民币国际化具有重要指导意义。

International currency is a unity which involves interests and power,Its political logic is to realize benefit maximization and to gain more monetary power.That the unity of opposites and its bidirectional dynamic conversion between interests and power consists of international monetary relations.This essay is trying to construct a framework for international currency politics(ICP),and to further discuss the political structure,balance tactics and game mechanism of international currency.This study finds out that the political structure of international currency evolves from junior to senior,and also from hegemony to democracy.Namely,the political structure evolves successively from currency hegemony to oligopoly competition,and to currency cooperation.Furthermore,by empirically analyzing the dollar-RMB relationship,this paper also clearly reveals the development law of ICP.In order to further illustrate this theory,we deeply analyze political decision-making,political structure,balance tactics and three kinds of currency game mechanism between U.S.dollar and RMB.This theory has guiding significance for promoting RMB internationalization.